(This article originally appeared as a Facebook post on 11 May 2020)
Three weeks ago on 22 April 2020, CHINA & USA were identified as “EU country” by RIVM ?, on 7 May it was BRAZIL’s turn to be “annexed” by RIVM for the EU ?? at least that’s what they showed on their graph.
On Thursday 7 May 2020 another Technical Briefing was given by RIVM to Dutch Members of Parliament.
Please note that this post is about a small part of the presentation (45-second duration, about 20 minutes from the start) and it relates to a graph in the top right corner of page 7, titled “Deaths per 100,000 people”.
The title on the first page of the presentation is “COVID-19 Technische briefing Tweede Kamer 7 mei 2020” (“COVID-19 Technical Briefing Second Chamber 7 May 2020”).
The images attached here are:
- Page 7 of the RIVM presentation titled “COVID-19 | NL 6 mei 2020 – overleden” (“COVID-19 | NL 6 May 2020 – deaths”) has a graph in the top right corner that we will be looking at.
RIVM to Dutch Members of Parliament on 7 May 2020.
- Zooming in on the graph in the top right corner of page 7. The title of the graph is “Deaths per 100,000 population”.
As page 7 was dated 6 May, the only full 24-hour data available to RIVM at the time of creation was from the 5th of May 2020. So I assumed they used data from 5 May 2020 but they could have used data from an earlier date. Graphs should show a date so the audience doesn’t have to guess.
Only the Netherlands has been identified on this graph by using an arrowhead. None of the other countries, represented by yellow dots on the RIVM graph (some with a dark circle) were identified.
RIVM COVID-19 Technical Briefing to Dutch Members of Parliament on 7 May 2020.
- The next graph is the same as the previous one, except this one has annotations explaining what’s wrong with the RIVM graph. The mistakes found are explained in this post and in the description of the other charts attached to this post.
RIVM COVID-19 Technical Briefing to Dutch Members of Parliament on 7 May 2020,
with annotations.
- Chart 1 that I have created with data for 5 May 2020 sourced from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, with similar settings as RIVM’s graph.
The chart shows a 2-letter code for all EU member states and the non-EU countries that were incorrectly marked as an EU member state.
- Chart 2 is the same as Chart1 but without the many dots that didn’t have a 2-letter code.
This chart shows the 27 EU countries and the 3 non-EU countries that were incorrectly marked as EU country.
on 5 May 2020, Only EU countries, Brazil, UK and USA are shown.
- Chart 2a shows around 50 European countries (EU and non-EU) and the 3 non-EU countries Brazil, UK and USA that were incorrectly marked as EU country.
on 5 May 2020, Only European countries (EU & non-EU), Brazil, UK and USA are shown.
- Chart 2b is Chart2 with annotations. It is mind-boggling.
on 6 May 2020. Same/similar to Chart 2 but with annotations.
Why would an otherwise intelligent and capable sounding man make such mistakes, two presentations in a row? (See the recently updated version of my previous post about the RIVM presentation on 22 April).
Either: (1) he didn’t understand the graph he was presenting; or (2) he understood the fake graph and deliberately used it to mislead members of parliament.
I hope it’s (1) or the Dutch are doomed as this person is also chairman of the Outbreak Management Team (OMT) that the government relies on for COVID-19 issues.
Has he been set up to fail? Was he given graphs that don’t make sense or have the graphs been switched at the last moment?
Why didn’t any member of Dutch parliament asked about a graph (on 22 Apr & 7 May) showing 100+ dots but with LESS THAN 10 dots circled as “EU countries”, knowing there are 27 EU member states? Have they lost count of the number of member states since BREXIT?
Or are they all in it together, to uphold an image of “no COVID-19 deaths issues in the Netherlands” despite reports that the Dutch have been undercounting and underreporting COVID-19 deaths and that the actual number of Dutch COVID-19 deaths may well have been DOUBLE the reported numbers, which would take the Dutch “Mortality rate per Capita” to the 2nd place worldwide (behind neighbour country Belgium)?
The Dutch politicians’ anxiety about Dutch COVID-19 deaths facts being exposed internationally seems to have clouded their perceptions and sense of truth.
Is this a collective feeling of shame that blinds 150 members of parliament and 17 million inhabitants from seeing (or willing to see) the truth?
But then to stoop so low and blatantly falsify graphs? This is not the Netherlands that I used to know, before I left for Australia 20+ years ago.
Something big must be at stake for this government institution to take the risk of being exposed for lying and deceiving. They seem to want to prevent the publication of high numbers of COVID-19 deaths, which could cause the sitting government to be blamed for being caught off-guard and unprepared despite the early warnings coming from China.
They probably figured out that the easiest way to keep COVID-19 death numbers low is to simply keep the number of tests low so fewer people will be diagnosed, resulting in fewer deaths being marked as COVID-19 deaths, and at the same time by maintaining and enforcing a policy that only victims who have been officially tested before death were counted as COVID-19 deaths.
Therefore it was important to the RIVM that any comparison with other countries, especially EU member states, must appear favourable to the Netherlands, as a high number of COVID-19 deaths will create pressure to carry out more tests, which will lead to more diagnosed cases, which in turn will lead to the true high number of COVID-19 deaths to come out.
Keeping the number of tests deliberately low has the risk of more people and health workers getting infected and potentially causing more deaths to occur. A higher number of deaths by itself will not cause the government to be blamed for incompetence, as long as the deaths are NOT counted as COVID-19 deaths.
The above may explain the motive for producing the fake graph, to keep up appearances, and which they hoped no one will notice.
The plot thickens…
(To be continued)
— // —
(Continued after a break)
The official transcript of the presentation can be downloaded from the website of the Dutch Parliament. The part of the transcript that speaks about the graph in question is (in Dutch):
"Dan nog even de grafiek rechts boven. Die geeft de sterfte voor een heleboel landen weer. Ook daar is natuurlijk een bias met betrekking tot wie wel of niet getest is. Nederland is aangegeven met het pijltje. Dit is afgezet tegen het aantal personen dat in een land woont. Het is genormaliseerd per 100.000, zoals dat heet. Het is dus gecorrigeerd voor een aantal factoren die maken dat je de landen niet zomaar kunt vergelijken, omdat een klein land met minder inwoners natuurlijk altijd minder sterfte zal tonen dan een groot land. U ziet dat Nederland zich in deze grafiek aan de onderzijde van de Europese landen bevindt."
Google-translated (to avoid any bias in translation) into English:
"Then the graph at the top right. It represents mortality for many countries. There too, of course, is a bias as to who has or has not been tested. The Netherlands is indicated with the arrow. This has been compared to the number of people living in a country. It is normalized per 100,000, as it is called. It has therefore been corrected for a number of factors that make it difficult to compare the countries, because a small country with fewer inhabitants will always show less mortality than a large country. You can see that the Netherlands is at the bottom of the European countries in this graph."
Let’s analyse the presentation:
"It is normalized per 100,000, as it is called.": It is not normalised. The number of COVID-19 deaths for the Netherlands as of 5 May 2020 is 5168. That is the number shown on the graph which can also be approximated on the y-axis. The “normalised” number, or the number of deaths per 100,000 of population for the Netherlands is 30.16 as of 5 May 2020 (5168 / 17.135 million / 100,000 = 30.16). The number “30.16” is not shown on the RIVM graph."... It has therefore been corrected for a number of factors ...": There are no “number of factors”, you simply divide the number of deaths by 171.35 to get the number of deaths per 100,000 people in the Netherlands, “171,35” is the population (17.135 million) divided by 100,000."... because a small country with fewer inhabitants will always show less mortality than a large country.": This assertion is not universally true and is not supported by the COVID-19 mortality facts known so far.
Let’s look at Chart 3 below. It shows that for many, if not most, countries there will always be one or more countries with a larger population and fewer deaths. For example:- The Netherlands with a population of 17.1M and 5168 deaths, has more deaths than six countries with larger populations. The red dotted horizontal and vertical lines going through the NL dot (Dutch data point) divides the chart area into 4 quadrants. Countries with larger populations but fewer deaths are found in the bottom right quadrant:
- Kazakhstan 18.8M and 29 deaths
- Romania 19.2M and 841 deaths
- Poland 37.8M and 716 deaths
- Ukraine 43.7M and 316 deaths
- Turkey 84.3M and 3520 deaths
- Russia 145.9M and 1451 deaths
- Denmark with a population of 5.8M and 503 deaths, has more deaths than nine countries with larger populations. The green dashed horizontal and vertical lines going through the DK dot (Danish data point) divides the chart area into 4 quadrants. Countries with larger populations but fewer deaths are found in the bottom right quadrant:
- Bulgaria 6.9M and 80 deaths
- Serbia 8.7M and 200 deaths
- Belarus 9.4M and 107 deaths
- Hungary 9.7M and 363 deaths
- Azerbaijan 10.1M and 26 deaths
- Greece 10.4M and 146 deaths
- Czechia 10.7M and 257 deaths
- Kazakhstan 18.8M and 29 deaths
- Ukraine 43.7M and 316 deaths
- For any other country, just draw imaginary (or real) horizontal and vertical lines through the dot (data point) representing the selected country, to divide the chart area into four quadrants. Countries with larger populations and fewer deaths than the selected country will be found in the bottom right quadrant, if any. Countries with lower populations and more deaths will be found in the top left quadrant, if any.
- The Netherlands with a population of 17.1M and 5168 deaths, has more deaths than six countries with larger populations. The red dotted horizontal and vertical lines going through the NL dot (Dutch data point) divides the chart area into 4 quadrants. Countries with larger populations but fewer deaths are found in the bottom right quadrant:
COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population on 5 May 2020
in European (EU and non-EU) countries and territories.
It shows that the Netherlands and Denmark have more COVID-19 deaths
than several other countries (6 and 9 respectively) with larger populations.
A chart that claims to show “COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population” or Mortality Rate per Capita (MRpC), must show that number for each country.
On Chart 4 I have placed the number of “COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population” on the vertical axis and retained Population on the horizontal axis. The dots representing countries show the ranking (on a global MRpC list), a 2-letter country code and the MRpC, which on 5 May 2020 ranges from 0.15 (Kazakhstan) to 69.17 (Belgium) for European countries.
PROs of Chart 4:
- Having “population” on the x-axis helps us to quickly see how a selected country compares to other larger or smaller countries.
- The logarithmic scale allows us to see 50 or more countries, although with reduced accuracy.
CONs of Chart 4:
- The logarithmic scale obscures/hides big differences that would otherwise be more pronounced when using a linear scale, such as on Chart 5 further below.
Number of COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population on 5 May 2020.
European (EU & non-EU) countries & territories, Brazil, UK and USA.
Only countries with a population larger than 100,000 are selected.
On Chart 5 we see a bar chart showing only the Mortality Rate per Capita (MRpC) or number of “COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population” and nothing else.
It unambiguously shows the MRpC of each country. MRpC is also called the “normalised mortality” or “relative mortality”.
PROs of Chart 5:
- Unambiguously shows where each country stands in relation to other countries, in terms of COVID-19 deaths in proportion to the population size.
- No distractions such as when also showing underlying data such as population or number of deaths.
- Because the chart uses a linear scale, the length of the bars are in proportion to the values they represent. So Spain’s bar (54.78) is twice as long as Ireland’s (27.12), and the Netherlands’ bar (30.16) is almost twice the size of Luxembourg (15.34). When using logarithmic scales such as in Chart 4, it is more difficult to estimate the values just by looking at distances (or length of objects) on the chart.
CONs of Chart 5:
- When used to display more than 30 countries the chart becomes too large.
- Does not show the underlying data (population and deaths) from which each country’s figure is derived, disabling further visual analysis.
Here is the Chart that the RIVM did NOT want members of parliament and the general public to see!
COVID-19 Deaths per 100,000 population on 5 May 2020.
EU countries with ranking on global MRpC list.
Conclusions
As in my previous post about a similar graph presented by RIVM on 22 April 2020, the graph itself is not the only problem.
What is even more disturbing than the incorrect and deceitful graphs are the mistakes and misrepresentations in the presentation that was given to explain the graphs. Here is a summary of my two posts, highlighting the phrases used by the presenter to explain the graphs:
- (22 Apr 2020)
"The graph above shows the relative position": The graph did not show relative deaths but absolute death numbers. - (22 Apr 2020)
"the Netherlands is indicated with the arrow relative to other European countries, which are the yellow circles with the dark circles around them": The legend described the yellow dots with a dark circle as “EU countries” but three of the nine countries with dark circles were China, the USA, and the UK. - (22 Apr 2020)
"compared to the total population per hundred thousand population": The graph doesn’t show any “per hundred thousand” number that can be matched against the vertical scale. The dots/circles show actual death numbers. - (22 Apr 2020)
"the Netherlands occupies an average position... somewhat on the lower side": The Netherlands was compared with a small section of the EU countries – only five EU countries and three non-EU countries, all with higher death numbers, and thereby ignoring 21 EU member states that have lower death numbers than the Netherlands – all deceitfully done to support the false claim that the Netherlands has lower death numbers than other European countries. - (22 Apr 2020)
"if the test policy is expanded and more serious patients are also going to be tested, the relative mortality will of course decrease because the denominator gets bigger.": Complete nonsense. The denominator in the formula for “Deaths per 100,000 population” is “population” and population does not become bigger if the test policy is expanded. - (7 May 2020)
"It is normalized per 100,000, as it is called.": The normalised number of “30.16” for the Netherlands was not shown on the graph. The graph showed a dot for the Netherlands that approximates to “5168” on the y-scale, which is the absolute number of deaths, not relative or normalised. - (7 May 2020)
"It has therefore been corrected for a number of factors": The number of deaths is only divided by one number (1/100,000th of population or 171.35 for the Netherlands) and not by a number of factors. This sounds like an attempt to make simple matters appear more complicated by obfuscating simple concepts. - (7 May 2020)
" because a small country with fewer inhabitants will always show less mortality than a large country": This assertion is not supported by the COVID-19 facts as I have shown above with Chart 3.
In almost every phrase that the presenter used to describe the graphs, we have found mistakes and misrepresentations that were not based on facts. A person with such a track record cannot be held tenable in any position of importance.
But hey, it’s up to the Dutch people to decide. You get the leaders that you deserve. The 150 members of parliament, thousands of journalists and 17.135 million people accepted for weeks without protest RIVM’s claim that the EU only has 9 or 10 member states and the lies about the number of COVID-19 deaths.
If you have a question or need any part of this explained in more detail, please post a comment below.
Sources
- The RIVM presentation can be downloaded in pdf format from the Dutch parliament’s website.
- The transcript of the RIVM presentation can be downloaded in pdf format from the Dutch parliament’s website.
- You can also watch a video recording of the entire RIVM Technical Briefing and questions asked by members of parliament on the Dutch parliament’s website.
- My charts were created with data from worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Addenda
Four images containing the list of COVID-19 Mortality Rate per Capita figures based on 5 May 2020 data for all 161 countries and territories worldwide that have reported 1 or more COVID-19 deaths and have a population size of at least 100,000 people.
based on 5 May 2020 data for 161 countries and territories worldwide
with at least 1 or more reported COVID-19 deaths and a population size
of at least 100,000 people. Part 1 – Country 1 to 40.
based on 5 May 2020 data for 161 countries and territories worldwide
with at least 1 or more reported COVID-19 deaths and a population size
of at least 100,000 people. Part 2 – Country 41 to 80.
based on 5 May 2020 data for 161 countries and territories worldwide
with at least 1 or more reported COVID-19 deaths and a population size
of at least 100,000 people. Part 3 – Country 81 to 120.
based on 5 May 2020 data for 161 countries and territories worldwide
with at least 1 or more reported COVID-19 deaths and a population size
of at least 100,000 people. Part 4 – Country 121 to 161.