In its April 2026 ‘World Economic Outlook,’ the IMF forecasts economic expansion in 2026 for all but 11 economies, despite a global landscape marred by intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and across Africa and Central Asia.
NOTES
- The first chart shows the 40 fastest-growing economies in 2026, primarily located in Africa and Asia. Armenia and Georgia are notable European inclusions in this top tier.
- The second chart shows 40 countries ranked as the 41st to 80th fastest-growing economies.
- The third chart shows 40 countries ranked as the 81st to 120th fastest-growing economies.
- The fourth chart shows 40 countries ranked as the 121st to 160th fastest-growing economies.
- The fifth chart shows the 20 slowest-growing economies (161st to 180th) and the 11 countries with shrinking economies. The 11 countries with negative forecasted growth are: Bahrain, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Puerto Rico, and Qatar.
- The sixth chart details the 27 EU member states, showing a marked divergence between high-growth service economies like Malta and industrial giants like Germany and Italy that are struggling with energy costs. Notably, the Netherlands and Romania have fallen in the rankings this year due to domestic infrastructure bottlenecks and aggressive fiscal tightening, respectively.
- The seventh chart shows forecasted growth figures for Country Groups. Many countries are represented in more than one group due to overlapping classifications.
- Some countries are excluded from these forecasts, typically where reliable data is unavailable.
Group 5 —
2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast: Bottom 31 Economies
20 Slowest-Growing (Positive) and 11 Shrinking (Negative)
Group 6 —
2026 Real GDP Growth Forecast:
27 EU Member States
• The Netherlands (19th): The Dutch economy is currently restricted by structural constraints rather than a lack of demand. Key “brakes” on growth include an overloaded electricity grid, strict nitrogen emission regulations that stall construction, and a persistent labour shortage. Additionally, while real wages are rising, high precautionary savings and a loss of external competitiveness due to energy costs have dampened the outlook.Source: ABN•AMRO, Rabobank
• Romania (23rd): Once a regional growth leader, Romania’s forecast was significantly revised downward to 0.69%. This reflects the heavy impact of fiscal consolidation—specifically tax increases and public sector wage freezes—necessary to address its large budget deficit. High inflation and rising labor costs have also eroded the country’s export competitiveness in the near term.Source: European Commission
• Germany (22nd) & Italy (27th): These major industrial hubs continue to struggle with the energy-driven supply shock linked to the war in the Middle East. Their high reliance on energy-intensive manufacturing makes them more vulnerable to the price volatility and shipping disruptions currently affecting global trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz.Source: IMF
• Ireland (7th): Ireland remains a top-tier performer, though it has stabilized from previous “hyper-growth” years. Its ranking is still heavily influenced by the accounting of multinational corporations, which can sometimes mask the underlying performance of the domestic economy.
Source: Euronews
